How Arbahh estimates YouTube earnings
Arbahh provides a planning range for channels serving audiences in Arabic-speaking markets. The estimate combines views with documented internal assumptions about content niche, audience country and video format.
The calculator cannot access private YouTube Studio data. Its result can be used to compare scenarios and understand the effect of different inputs. It is not an income statement, guarantee or market measurement.
Content updated:
Model version 2026.07 · Coefficients reviewed July 2026
The calculation formula
The calculator applies the following formula to the lower and upper RPM values:
Estimated earnings = total views ÷ 1,000 × adjusted RPM range
The central RPM used to build that range is:
Central model RPM = base niche RPM × audience-country factor × video-format factor
The displayed range is constructed as:
- Lower RPM: central model RPM × 0.60
- Upper RPM: central model RPM × 1.40
The 40% spread is a fixed model choice. It is not a measured confidence interval and does not mean that actual earnings will fall inside the range.
What RPM means
RPM means revenue per mille: revenue per 1,000 views for standard videos and per 1,000 engaged views for Shorts. It differs from CPM, which measures what advertisers pay per 1,000 advertising impressions.
Subtracting YouTube’s revenue share from CPM does not produce a channel’s RPM. CPM is based on monetized advertising impressions, while RPM uses total views and may include eligible YouTube revenue sources beyond standard advertising.
Arbahh uses RPM because it addresses the creator’s practical question: what revenue might a given number of views produce?
The inputs used by the model
Base niche RPM
Each content niche has a reference RPM inside the Arbahh model. The values express the model’s estimated relative position of one niche against another.
They are internal assumptions. They are not derived from a published YouTube table, an audited advertising dataset or direct access to creator accounts.
Audience-country factor
The selected country represents the main location of the viewers, rather than the creator’s place of residence.
The model uses an internal country factor because advertising availability and value may vary with audience characteristics, including location. YouTube does not publish an official RPM table covering every country and niche combination.
If the audience is distributed across several countries, the mixed-Arab-audience option is a more appropriate planning input than selecting the creator’s home country.
Video-format factor
| Format | Internal factor | Meaning in the model |
|---|---|---|
| Shorts | ×0.08 | Lower planning RPM associated with Shorts revenue sharing |
| Standard video | ×1.00 | Reference format |
| Video of 8 minutes or more | ×1.55 | Internal long-form assumption |
The eight-minute boundary corresponds to eligibility for mid-roll advertising under YouTube’s published rules. Eligibility does not guarantee that a mid-roll advertisement will appear or that revenue will increase by the model factor. The factors remain internal Arbahh assumptions.
Fixed uncertainty range
Arbahh displays a range from 60% to 140% of the central model RPM. This communicates uncertainty in a consistent way across calculations.
The range does not adjust itself for the amount or quality of available evidence. The model review date provides additional context, but it does not turn the range into a statistical confidence interval.
The three estimates shown in the calculator
Broad estimate
The broad mode starts with a general planning RPM range of $0.25–$4.00 before the selected format is applied. It is not adjusted for niche or audience country.
Arabic-market estimate
This mode applies the selected audience-country factor to the model’s general-content RPM assumption, together with the selected format.
Niche-adjusted estimate
This mode applies the selected niche, audience-country and format assumptions. It is the most specific Arbahh scenario, while remaining an internally modeled estimate.
Showing all three modes allows users to compare a wide planning range with the model’s more specific assumptions.
Worked example
For 100,000 views, general content, a mainly Saudi audience and a standard video, the current model produces:
| Calculation stage | Value |
|---|---|
| Base general-content RPM | $1.50 |
| Saudi audience factor | ×1.20 |
| Standard-video factor | ×1.00 |
| Central model RPM | $1.80 |
| Lower RPM | $1.08 |
| Upper RPM | $2.52 |
| Estimated earnings | $108–$252 |
100,000 ÷ 1,000 × $1.08–$2.52 = $108–$252
This example documents the model’s operation. It is not an externally measured Saudi benchmark.
Public channel lookup
When a public channel is entered, Arbahh separates the retrieved fields by purpose:
Daily-view estimation
- Public total channel views and channel creation date.
- Up to 15 recent public videos, including their public view counts and publication dates.
- Derived recent median views per day, historical views per day and recent upload activity.
The daily-view estimate takes the higher of recent performance and activity-adjusted historical performance.
Niche and Arabic-language detection
- Public channel title and description.
- Public default-language and default-audio-language metadata, when supplied by YouTube.
- Titles, descriptions and category IDs of recent public videos.
Response and context
- Channel identity and avatar.
- Public subscriber count, when available, and public total video count.
Subscriber count and total video count do not enter the daily-view or earnings formula. The lookup does not reveal private revenue, actual RPM, audience geography or monetized-view share.
The creator selects the audience country and video format used by the earnings model. The lookup may prefill a detected niche. Review or change it before calculating.
What the estimate includes
- The entered or estimated views.
- The model’s RPM assumptions.
- The selected audience country.
- The selected content niche.
- The selected video format.
- The fixed lower and upper range.
What the estimate does not separately calculate
- Sponsorship income.
- Affiliate commissions.
- Merchandise, products or course sales.
- Memberships, Super Chat or Super Thanks.
- A channel’s private advertising configuration.
- Actual audience-country distribution.
- Seasonal changes.
- Future subscriber or view growth.
A creator’s YouTube Studio RPM may reflect eligible YouTube revenue sources that a public calculator cannot reproduce. The Studio figure should be used when it is available.
Sources and evidence boundaries
Arbahh uses official YouTube documentation for:
- The definitions of RPM and CPM.
- YouTube Partner Program requirements.
- Shorts revenue-sharing mechanics.
- Mid-roll eligibility rules.
Official YouTube documentation does not provide the numeric niche RPM values, country factors, format factors or 40% uncertainty band used by Arbahh.
Those numeric values are internal modeling decisions.
Model version and review record
- Model version: 2026.07
- Current documented review: July 2026
How to use the result
Use the estimate to:
- Compare audience-country, niche and format scenarios.
- Test the effect of a different view level.
- Create a conservative planning range before channel-specific revenue data exists.
- Identify which assumptions have the largest effect on the result.
Do not use it as:
- A guaranteed income forecast.
- Proof of what another channel earns.
- A replacement for YouTube Studio.
- Financial or investment advice.